Stock Markets tend to offer a large variety of tools and money-making
vehicles for investors and traders.
In order to make intelligent choice among them, one must answer 3
questions:
1) Am I a trader or an investor - most people are traders, without
realizing this fact - such misconception partially accounts for their poor performance.
2) What is my time horizon - will I need the money in 2 years or in 40
years? If you need money quickly,
long term strategies like trend following or mutual fund investing
will not be appropriate.
In general, the more time you have, the more different vehicles you
can use to achieve financial goals.
3) How much time do I want to spend (and can spend) dealing with the
stock market?
Day trading is very time consuming. Trend following can require
thousands of hours of study and research
to develop a trend following system. In addition, if you do not
know how to program computers
(or at least, Excel spreadsheet), you will need to pay someone to
do it for you - can you afford the expense?
If you want to look at your investments just once a year, you will
need a different strategy than someone
who is fascinated by the markets, and can spend 4 hrs per day plus
weekends researching and planning trades.
If you are an investor - and your time horizon is short (less than
5 years) - forget the stock market - look into
certificates of deposit and money market funds. You can gamble that
the markets will favor you - but understand that
it is gambling. 5 years is not enough to both recover from potential
losses and to attain your goals.
If you are an investor, but your time horizon is long (5 years of
more) - the number of strategies that can be employed
in the stock market is still fairly small - you can do dividend
investing (both individual stocks and income mutual funds), covered calls (options) writing, buy bonds ( hold bonds to
maturity to eliminate interest rate risk to the principal),
or buy entire companies outright (Warren Buffet does that).
If you are a trader with a short time horizon - 5 years or less -
then day trading may give you high returns -
but 5 years might not be enough time to recover from the early,
inevitable, learning moments, i.e. mistakes.
It may be wiser to stick to money market funds and bonds ( held to
maturity - to eliminate
interest rate risk to the principal).
If you are a trader with a time horizon of more than 5 years - your
choices are plentiful indeed.
You will need to tailor them to the amount of time you can
spend dealing with the markets,
and to your personality.
The point about personality is often overlooked, but is extremely
important.
There are people who cannot sleep at night - literally - if their
accounts are down 5%.
There are others who consider a 20% drop in account value as a normal
occurrence. Some poeple can spend 3 hrs glued to a computer screen. Others cannot.
Which one are you?
We will look at trading through different characteristics. Figure out
where you would be comfortable
- yes, you can pick more than one. :-)
First, we will look at time factor - how long is a position (stock)
held - this influences how often you
trade, your brokerage costs, and how much time you spend watching the
markets.
Day Trading - going both long and short individual stocks or market
indexes or options, never holding a position overnight -
hence day trading - your trades are completed before the end
of the day.
Very intense, often one makes 400-500 trades per year; day trading requires as many hours to prepare as to
trade (if you are trading, say the first two
hours when the market opens, you will spend 2 hrs in
pre-trading and post-trading work, for a total
of four hours each day). If you are on the West Coast -
this means getting up around 5 AM every trading day -
stock market opens at 6:30 am PST and the pre-market
trading, as well as the first hour of regular trading
are considered best for day traders. This is in addition
to hundreds of hours you must spend to research and develop the
trading approach you will use.
Preferred vehicles: individual stocks, ETFs, trading
oriented mutual funds.
Minimum required capital: $50,000.
Swing Trading - going both long and short individual stocks or market
indexes or options, typically holding a position from a couple
of days to 3-4 weeks. Much less intense than day
trading, but also requires hundreds of hours to research
and develop the system you will use. Depending on the
system, you may have to deal with the markets on daily or weekly basis.
Preferred vehicles: individual stocks, ETFs, trading
oriented mutual funds.
Minimum required capital: $50,000.
Long Term (Position Trading) - going both long and short individual stocks or market
indexes or options, can hold positions
for weeks, months, sometimes years, requires
hundreds of hours to develop the system,
may need to monitor market daily, weekly, monthly, for some strategies, only once per year.
Actual trades are fairly infrequent, and often are placed after the market
closes.
Preferred vehicles: individual stocks,
ETFs, most mutual funds.
Minimum required capital: $2,000.
We can also look at different vehicles - things to buy or sell - each has
characteristics which dictate how
you use them, how much time and research you need to do, and the
choices you have.
Stocks - provide most flexibility and least limitations. Allow for
borrowing money on margin.
Can be day traded, swing traded, traded for long term. Can be sold short. Require
considerable research.
Stock Options - buying options conveys the right, but not an obligation to
purchase or sell
a stock at a pre-agreed price. Problem with options is that
unlike stocks, they have a limited
lifetime. At the end of the "option period" they expire - if
not exercised - they become worthless.
Not for the faint of heart.
Mutual Funds - mutual funds hold a number of individual stocks, selected by the fund manager. You may day trade mutual funds (very few), you can swing trade
them (very few), or do long term trend following type of trading (all).
You may also augment these approaches with
managing the fund managers (presumption being that the managers can
do better than you selecting stocks) - buying a
number of mutual funds,
for example 5, then at the end of the year,
removing the least productive fund, and replacing it with a different one
from the universe of over 7000 available mutual funds.
Another approach would be to decide on a fixed
ratio of the funds - say 5 funds, each to hold 20% of your capital,
and at the end of the year, to sell off some of
those that performed well, and buy more of the underperformers
to restore the 20% ratio among all funds. The
idea is that you are selling high (the ones that performed well)
and buying low (the ones that underperformed -
assumption is that their day will come,
and you will get excellent performance since you
are buying them when underpriced).
One of the drawbacks of mutual funds is that
most can be bought and sold only at the end
of a trading day. If the stock market is falling
- you can usually sell your stocks
as soon as you make the decision, but with a
mutual fund, your sell order will not
be executed until 4pm Eastern Time. If the market
is falling hard, this could mean additional
2-3% loss, compared to someone who held stocks
and was able to sell at the beginning of a
down day.
Index mutual funds - index funds are mutual funds designed to track a specific basket
of stocks - typically a well known
index, like Dow Jones Industrials, or S&P 500 ( 500
biggest US companies).
They have low fees compared to regular mutual funds, and research
has shown that about 70% of mutual fund
managers underperform the market. With index funds, you
get the market performance for very low fees.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) - they are very similar to mutual funds,
in that they usually track an index
(a basket) of stocks, but have an additional advantage
of being traded like a stock -
they can be bought and sold throughout the day, and can
be sold short (you can sell them anticipating
that their price will drop, then repurchase them and
pocket the difference). Many ETFs are country specific - they invest in stocks of a single country, allowing you to make trades targeting
countries other than US. However, ETFs are not perfect - click here to read about ETF flaws
.
Finally, there are different "stories" people tell themselves about the
inner workings of the market.
Often called "strategies" - they supposedly reflect how markets work
and what influences prices.
Trend Following - belief that it is possible to spot trends in the
market, and that they persist long enough
to make money. Buy-and-hold is a super long term
trend following strategy - based on
a belief that over a period of decades, the
stock market will trend upward.
One can be a day trading trend follower, a swing
trader who is a trend follower,
or a position trader who is a trend follower. You
simply look for trends that fit
your trading timeframe. As the saying goes - The Trend is Your Friend.
Sector Rotation - as the economy goes through recession, recovery,
expansion - different sectors of the economy
tend to be more profitable. Sector rotation strategy
looks to shift through those sectors
seeking best returns (for example - financial sector,
retail stores sector, industrial machinery).
You can trade individual stocks using this strategy, or
sector mutual funds, of sector ETFs.
Technical Analysis - analyzing various statistics derived from stock
price and volume data, traders arrive
at trade entry and exit points (prices). Pure
technical analysts do not care if the
company makes toothpaste or tanks - price and
volume statistics are all that matters.
Trend followers tend to use technical analysis to
define trends, prices to enter a trade,
and prices to exit a trade.
Fundamental Analysis - analyzing the company as a business - its
products, cash flow, financial situation,
competitors. So called Value Investors (including Value mutual funds) use fundamental analysis
to decide which stocks to buy.
As you can see - time frames, vehicles, and strategies can
be combined in many ways to form
a foundation of a trading plan. One could be a trend following day
trader of ETFs, or long term trader
using fundamental analysis to select individual stocks (very time
consuming) or select Value mutual funds,
then use the "worst performer out" strategy to replace the worst
performing fund every year.
You really need to ask yourself how these constraints (time to study markets, starting capital,
emotional reactions to market events, personality) interact. Based on
that reflection, it will be a lot
easier to select strategies and vehicles well suited to your own
personality - and this will greatly
increases likelihood of your trading success.
Next week, we will list more strategies, and more details of the various approaches to trading.
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